Races that could flip the Senate

By Kimberly Wilborn 11/5/16

Senate races are close in several states leading up to Election Day and there is a possibility some races could even flip the current Republican held Senate.

This year, 34 seats are up for grabs and 24 of them are currently held by Republicans.

In Illinois, GOP Senator Mark Kirk trails behind Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth in the polls. Wisconsin’s Republican-held seat is also expected to change with Democratic Senator Russ Feingold being the favorite, but the race is tight. A FiveThirtyEight polls-plus model indicates that Feingold is a 90% favorite. However, in a new Marquette University poll, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is only down by 1 point. The seat in Pennsylvania is also looking like it will go to a Democrat this election year. Democrat Katie McGinty leads in the polls against Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.

Tighter Senate races include Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada. In Indiana, the race is close between Republican Todd Young and current Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh. Throughout the year Bayh was in the lead; but according to a new Monmouth University poll, Bayh and Young are tied.

The Missouri Senate race is also predicted to be a toss-up with GOP Sen. Roy Blunt against former Missouri Secretary of State, Democrat Jason Kander. A Monmouth University poll shows Blunt to have a 1 point lead while an Emerson College poll shows there is a tie.

The North Carolina race is also close between Republican Richard Burr and Democrat Deborah Ross. The fight to keep the Republican seat in New Hampshire is also said to be a “toss-up” according to CNN. Polls show the race is extremely tight between Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte and Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan.

However, the outcome for the current Democratic-held seat in Nevada is also uncertain. Several polls have shown either Republican Rep. Joe Heck in the lead or shown Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto with a lead.

Democrats would need to gain four or five seats to flip the Senate, in addition to the Democratic senators that currently hold their position. If Clinton is elected president, they would need four, and if Trump is elected President, they would need five.


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