Suburban voters could decide the election; Waukesha County as crucial battleground in Wisconsin

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By Hannah Goeke

Waukesha County was once critical to the Republican strategy for winning Wisconsin. Now, both parties are competing for its support.

A key swing county of a key swing state might be the deciding factor in the upcoming presidential election. Waukesha County stands out as a key battleground and with the election just over two weeks away, anxiety among voters is growing.

Waukesha County holds near-mythical status among political analysts for its historical role in swinging elections as the third most populous county in the state. Despite traditionally leaning Republican, recent shifts show Democrats gaining ground. “Waukesha County is growing,” said Matt Mareno, the chair of the Waukesha County Democratic Party. “If we invest in this community, we block the Republicans from ever having a statewide victory in Wisconsin, because we’re undermining the heartbeat of the Republican Party in Wisconsin.”

The rise of Donald Trump is partly responsible for this change. Historically, Republicans secured around 66 percent of the vote in the county during presidential races. However, Trump’s candidacies saw that number dip to approximately 60 percent in 2016 and 2020. This change has created opportunities for Democrats to make inroads in a region once considered solidly red.

Whether Trump or Harris, voters of Waukesha County express little excitement over the election. More than 50 voters interviewed three weeks before Election Day repeatedly used words like “anxious,” “apprehensive,” “scared,” “worried,” and “terrified” to describe their feelings about the other party’s candidate winning.

Supporters of former President Donald Trump express concern that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, it could lead to rising inflation, increased crime, and heightened illegal immigration.  Meanwhile, Harris supporters argue that another four years of Trump would deepen divisions and threaten American democracy. 

Political analysts highlight three significant factors influencing voter sentiment: neither candidate enjoys particularly high favorability ratings, the political middle ground is shrinking, and recent elections have increasingly focused on energizing party bases rather than fostering compromise.

“Voters are echoing what campaigns and parties have repeatedly said: that the other side is evil and to blame for everything,” said Rick Wiley, who managed former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley’s recent presidential campaign and previously served as executive director of the Wisconsin Republican Party. 

Polling from FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with a slim lead of just 0.6 percent—mirroring the margin by which Biden won Wisconsin in the last election. However, Trump has gained momentum in the state.