The 2024 Election may result in a historic congressional “double flip”

By Vivienne Felber

As Americans head to the polls to cast their vote for the 2024 election today, Democratic and Republican strategists alike can see this race for control of Congress is very close. While Democrats believe they can take back the House from the Republicans, the Republicans believe they can take control of the Senate. 

This would result in a historic “double flip” in which voters change the majorities in both chambers of Congress, but in opposite partisan directions. However, the outcome is uncertain, and it could take days like the American people saw in 2022. 

This scenario could create difficulties for the new president in governing.

In the Senate, Democrats are facing a challenging election map this year, with their narrow 51-seat majority at risk. Republicans will likely gain the seat of retiring Senator Joe Manchin in West Virginia, which increases the pressure on Democratic incumbents in Trump-leaning states such as Montana and Ohio to defend their seats amid strong political opposition.

For the House, Democrats need to flip just four Republican-held districts to regain the majority they lost in 2022, but many races are too close to call. As of Monday, 22 districts were rated “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report. House Republicans must defend 16 seats in reliably Democratic states, including nine in California, New York, and Oregon. Meanwhile, Democrats are working to defend 11 seats.