Iowa caucus front-runner triumphs and falls

January 14, 2024

Donald Trump speaking in Durham, NH, on December 16, 2023.

By Callie Krosin, WEBN

With just days left until the 2024 Iowa Caucuses, the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows 48% percent of likely 2024 Republican caucus attendees would choose former President Donald Trump as their first choice for President.

Trump currently leads Nikki Haley (20%) by 28-points and Ron DeSantis (16%) by 32-points. However, in the past pre-Caucus polling front runners haven’t always performed the same on Caucus night.

In 2012, Rick Santorum upset Mitt Romney in the Iowa Caucus. Santorum received 29,839 votes, while Romney received 29,805 votes, a 34-vote margin. RealClear Politics Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus polling data average shows Santorum trailed Romney and Rand Paul between December 21, 2011, and January 1, 2012. The average indicates Romney led at 22.8% of votes, while Paul trailed at 21.5% and Santorum at 16.3%.

The front-runner from pre-Caucus polling from RealClearPolitics between January 24, 2016, and January 31, 2016, differs from the winner on Caucus night. Trump led Republican candidates with 28.6% of the votes, while Ted Cruz received 23.9% support and Marco Rubio 16.9%. On February 1, 2016, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas won the Iowa caucuses with 27.6% of the votes. Trump received 24.3%, while Rubio followed with 23.1%.

Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz won the Caucuses, but the candidates in second place–Mitt Romney and former President Donald Trump– received the party nomination. The 2008 Iowa Caucus also went to a candidate different than the party nominee: Mike Huckabee.

In 2020, Trump won both the Iowa Caucus and party nomination. Trump’s margin over opponents in 2024 exceeds that of his in 2016. Against Cruz, Trump was 4.7 points ahead. This margin is about a quarter of his support above Nikki Haley in the most recent Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll.