Opinion: How the rise of right-wing politics in Europe could affect a potential Trump presidency
By Hannah Goeke
The global political arena has changed since Donald Trump first ran for president in 2016. The Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas conflict dominate foreign policy decisions and political views have drastically changed as proven by the recent European Parliament elections indicating a rising support for the far right. Yet, the former president’s views on foreign policy remain unchanged. Trump continues to see transatlantic relationships as purely transactional.
What does the rise of right-wing politics across Europe mean for a potential Trump presidency? With the right-wing surge, more countries might be willing to engage in business with Trump as seen with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The success of Trump’s ‘America First’ style of governance could inspire European right-wing populist leaders to prioritize national over European interests.
Will Trump Unite or Divide Europe?
Whilst European countries may enter into competitive trade agreements with the United States to safeguard their national interests, there is a concern shared across all of Europe in case of a Trump presidency. Trump has threatened multiple times to withdraw financial support from Ukraine putting more pressure on the national budgets of European countries.
The push towards stronger self-reliance could lead to a renewed sense of shared responsibility among Europeans. It is clear that the 2024 elections will not only affect the United States but have a deciding impact on the solidarity between European countries.
Many fear that Western relationships could be challenged by a potential shift from a strong transatlantic alliance under Biden to a Trumpist transactional and isolationist style of governance. However, it will prove difficult for Trump as president to have the United States maintain its position as a superpower and be isolationist at the same time.
Is the rise of right politics in Europe indicative of a Trump presidency?
The Western hemisphere is starting to lean towards the right: whether the United States will be a part of that remains to be seen. However, there are lessons to be learned from the European Parliament elections. Understanding what brought along the rise of right-wing parties in Europe may prove useful to both Biden’s and Trump’s campaign.
Both the United States and Europe are dealing with large waves of refugees, yet left-leaning European parties’ unwillingness to slow down on immigration cost them many seats in the parliament. While Joe Biden has reinstated some of Trump’s former policies on immigration, the polls still show that Americans feel more confident in Trump handling illegal immigration problems.
And there is another issue left European politicians faced in the election that might translate to the presidential election in the fall. There has been an increase in European voters rejecting green parties and climate policy as the war in Ukraine has created a serious energy shortfall. Similarly, many Americans are still opposed to restrictions on the booming oil and gas industry which could potentially hurt Biden’s green policy campaign.