Polling shows shift in Black vote: Is Kamala Harris winning back Black voters?
Polls show more Black voters are voting for Trump than in 2020. Can Harris win back over Black voters who lost faith in President Biden?
By Merritt Hughes
As the 2024 Presidential election approaches, polls are ever-changing. One of the biggest shifts from the 2020 election is Black voters: who are they voting for?
In 2020, President Biden won 90% of Black voters, securing his narrow win of the White House. Polling during the first half of 2024 indicated that, while Biden still had the majority of Black voter’s confidence, it was less than those who voted for him in 2020.
But since Vice President Kamala Harris became the nominee over Biden in August, polling has indicated a shift in Black voters back towards the Democratic party. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that almost eight of 10 Black voters said they would vote for Harris over former president Donald J. Trump. This is up from the 74% Black voters that felt confident voting for Biden in July.
The poll also shows that 15% of Black voters said they plan to vote for Trump, almost double from the 2016 and 2020 election cycles. Why are Black voters shifting towards Trump, especially following his questioning of Harris’ racial identity and claims of immigrants taking “Black jobs?”
The answer is two-fold. Trumps’ campaign has made conscious efforts to appeal to Black voters, specifically Black men in battleground states. And Black voters have started to lose faith in the Democratic party, saying they have not delivered on campaign promises—21% of respondents said the Democratic party does not have solutions for the problems Black people face in the U.S.
This is not to say that Black voters have more faith in a Republican administration, but it is something different. Many young men have indicated that Trump’s economic policies appeal to them, and Trump has seemingly targeted campaign efforts towards Black voters, sending them mailers describing Harris as a “failed leader.”
In an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists in Philadelphia on Sept. 17, Harris said, “Black men are like any other voting group, you’ve got to earn their vote.”
“So I’m working to earn the vote,” she continued, “not assuming I’m going to have it because I am Black, but because the policies and the perspectives I have understands what we must do to recognize the needs of all communities.”
With less than a month to election day, both Trump and Harris are still on the campaign trail, and it seems that Black voters could swing the election.